Pathways to decarbonize India’s transport sector: Scenario analysis using the Energy Policy Simulator

India’s Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategy (LT-LEDS), submitted in November 2022, highlights key strategies such as electrification, fuel efficiency improvements, and a modal shift to public transport for passenger transport and toward railways for road freight. An integrated assessment of the decarbonization potential of each of these strategies and their cumulative impact is required to prioritize effective low-carbon transport policy packages.

This working paper presents the decarbonization potential of each of these strategies by disaggregating them into policy levers, under varying time frames and intensities.

This assessment is based on the India Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), an open-source systems dynamics model that allows users to develop scenarios for varying time frames (i.e., by 2030, 2040, and 2050) and ambition levels, and assess their impacts on output parameters such as CO2 emissions and energy reduction. The findings are based on the simulation and inputs from expert stakeholder consultations.

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